THE DREAM

Before we can get to the truth about The Cliffs, we have to understand the beginning. Imagine this. You’re searching for the perfect piece of property. Maybe it’s a retirement retreat where you can build that dream home. Or perhaps you’re after a lot where the value of the amenities far outweighs the cost itself. Maybe you’re a builder, looking for prime land to showcase your luxury-level designs.

Regardless of your reason, you’re looking for land—land that, even if left untouched, should appreciate in value over time.

Now, picture yourself sitting in a golf cart. The sun is shining, the grass is lush, and a gentle breeze drifts through the air. It’s a perfect 76 degrees. Clouds pass by, casting occasional shade. This is the dream.

The cart carries you across an incredible, championship-level, 18-hole golf course, skirting dramatic cliffside edges with breathtaking views—100-plus feet above one of Texas’ most stunning lakes, where the Brazos River winds through Red Bluffs and carves its way down the canyon.

You pass the on-site hotel, conference center, restaurant, and pro shop. Then, you ride past condos, multiple swimming pools, tennis courts, a playground, and finally, the marina—one of the largest on Possum Kingdom Lake. You see a private community beach with picnic areas, grills, soft sandy shores, and a roped-off swimming area.

This… This is the kind of place you’ve been searching for.

This is The Cliffs Resort at Possum Kingdom.

And Then Life Happens

So, you bought that lot. Not the one with the breathtaking view, but the one with a solid, level foundation—perfect for building your dream home when the time comes. Maybe a few oak trees shade the backyard. It wasn’t the most high-end lot, but it was a good one.

Then, life happens. Plans change. The retirement home you once envisioned at The Cliffs is no longer in the cards. Now, you’re planning it somewhere else—closer to the grandkids, closer to parents who need more attention. It’s time to let go of your investment. But it’s appreciated in value, and you’re going to make a profit, right?

Not so fast.

The truth about The Cliffs and your lot is that it may have actually lost value. But HOW?

Rare Waterview lot on Preston Trail

The Hard Truth About The Cliffs

Since COVID, the real estate landscape has changed dramatically—especially in the work-from-home space. As remote work became the norm, people gained the freedom to live anywhere, and demand for rural lake properties surged. Some agents argue that the COVID boom artificially inflated prices and that values will eventually come down. While that may be true in many areas, it has yet to happen at PK. Now, demand remains strong, and with more flexibility to fully enjoy Possum Kingdom, the appeal has only grown—but that’s a conversation for another time.

So, you’re trying to sell your Cliffs lot. Depending on its topography and location, your agent is sending you “comps” ranging from $5,000 to $10,000—maybe even up to $15,000 or $20,000, depending on the phase. (For reference, we’re talking about the majority of lots here—not waterfront, not water-view, and likely not on the golf course.)

You list it with your agent because you need it gone. The good news? You’ve got a competent local lake agent who knows how to market and make your lot stand out. Let’s say a buyer comes quickly, and your lot doesn’t sit on the market for months like the others.

Closing day arrives. The lot you purchased for $25,000 more than twenty years ago just sold for $8,000. But that’s not your profit—that’s just the sales price. Once you factor in your agent’s commission, HOA transfer fees, prorated dues, taxes, and other closing costs, you’re probably looking at deductions of $3,500 to $5,500.

Now, instead of celebrating at the bank, you’re sitting there staring at your check, thinking—Is this really all I made?

Own a lot on the golf course looking out over this valley

What Your Agent Doesn’t Know (Or Doesn’t Tell You) – The Real Truth About The Cliffs

The reality is, the developer may be interested in your lot and could offer you more than you would make on the open market after all the fees. In the scenario above, this isn’t just a hypothetical—it’s something I’ve witnessed firsthand on multiple occasions.

Having represented buyers in these deals, I’ll admit there was excitement in negotiating great deals for my clients, knowing the value they were getting. But on the other hand, knowing what I know now, it was tough to watch sellers walk away with so little.

Was it wrong? I don’t think so. Some sellers were just as happy to move on as the buyers who were thrilled to start their own adventure.

Does the developer always pay more than market value? Absolutely not. I’ve seen offers range from $4,250 to over $7,000. If your lot’s market value does not exceed that by $4,000-$6,000, you might save time, money, and frustration by checking two things: 1) your agent’s suggested market value and 2) the developer’s offer. Be sure to factor in closing costs before making your decision.

What’s the Value?

As one of the most amenity-rich communities on the entire lake, it’s easy to see the value in what The Cliffs has to offer. But how does the public market compare to what The Cliffs sell their lots for? (Note: This refers to the developer’s asking prices, not the price they offer to purchase lots back.)

Because The Cliffs does not publicly list their lot prices, it’s difficult to determine how resale values compare to developer pricing. As of March 17, 2025, the lowest-priced lot on the public market is $6,200. One of my clients toured The Cliffs with the development staff before coming to me, and they reported that the lowest lot offered by The Cliffs was $35,000. That’s a significant difference!

That raises the question—why can the developer sell a lot at that price while a similar lot next door may only sell for $10,000 on the open market? What does the market tell us?

• 2022: 159 properties were listed, sold, canceled, or expired.
• 2023: 139 properties.
• 2024: 111 properties.
• Today: 64 active lots listed in The Cliffs.

(Note: These figures do not include lots listed multiple times by different agents or those that expired in one year and were relisted in another.)

Rare Waterview lot on Preston Trail

The Future of The Cliffs Market

As one of the most amenity-rich communities on the entire lake, it’s easy to see the value in what The Cliffs has to offer. With two swimming pools (plus another for the Condo Association), marina access, and a host of other amenities, The Cliffs presents an incredible opportunity—whether for a family retreat or a corporate getaway.

As noted with the numbers in the previous section, supply is shrinking, yet demand remains steady, peaking in the summer and tapering off in the winter. I anticipate we’ll see more lots being sold back to the developer until demand slows enough to drive values back up—ideally to a point where public market prices and developer pricing become more competitive.

If agents become more informed about the available options and communicate them to their clients, we could see a significant number of listings leave the market quickly—assuming The Cliffs Development maintains a similar buy-back program. Would this mean fewer commissions for agents? Probably. But as real estate professionals, our code of ethics requires us to present all options to our clients before entering into a listing contract.

Ultimately, I see the potential for a bright and profitable future for property owners in The Cliffs at Possum Kingdom Lake. How soon market values will shift in that direction remains to be seen.

Own one of the few remaining dock-able waterfront lots in The Cliffs

Why Write This Article?

Some may ask—why this article, and why now? Today, I spoke with five individuals, all of whom had listed with different agents over the years. Four of them had their properties expire, and we discussed the possibility of them listing with me. As we talked about their properties and situations, I realized they weren’t aware of the option to sell to The Cliffs Development. After speaking with all five, it became clear that many agents and sellers might not be aware of this alternative.

As I mentioned earlier, this doesn’t benefit me financially. But if I can provide a simple solution that potentially yields a better return—or at the very least, inform sellers of their options—isn’t that what we’re supposed to do?

As someone whose family has owned a lot in The Cliffs for over 20 years, I personally understand this situation. I’ve had agents tell me, “I don’t work with small stuff” or “I don’t deal with Cliffs lots.” I commend them for building a business that allows them to make those decisions. Personally, I got my start in real estate working the “little lots” that nobody wanted. Yes, I’ve worked on deals nearing $5,000,000, but I’ve also made lifelong friends through “working” these lots. The truth about The Cliffs and reason for this article is that I love the area and the opportunity it could provide. I feel connected to it and the people there. And that’s why I’m always looking to help property owners and keep them informed on their options.

Written by Matthew Renfro. The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of Matthew Renfro and do not necessarily reflect those of his brokerage, other agents, or any affiliated entities. This content is based on his professional experience and perspective as a real estate agent in Texas.